Voters in Vermont are choosing all members of the Vermont Legislature and all five constitutional offices, including the governor and lieutenant governor. Incumbent Republican Phil Scott is being challenged in his attempt to win a 6th two-year term by Democratic newcomer Amanda Janoo. In past races Scott has handily defeated his challengers, but polls are showing a tight race as Election Day approaches. As he talks about the key races in the state, Middlebury College Political Scientist Bert Johnson tells WAMC North Country Bureau Chief Pat Bradley that the gubernatorial polls indicate that race is the most challenging for the incumbent in years.
Bert Johnson: What it suggests to me is that this race is more competitive than any governor's race we've had in Vermont for the last 10 years. Phil Scott has been a very popular Republican incumbent and at times he has cruised to re-election without much trouble. But he's in a real race this time with Amanda Janoo.
Bradley: Why is Amanda Janoo, who is a complete newcomer to politics, such a strong candidate?
Bert Johnson: Well, it is unusual that somebody would be as strong a candidate as she seems to be without having run for statewide office before. But I think she's been able to harness a lot of energy at the grassroots in Vermont and there's a sense in which she's also tapping into the broader anti-Trump energy that's around the country.
Usually, in a midterm election, in a second term of a presidency, there's a lot of energy in the out party and maybe less energy on the incumbent party and that's carrying over to the Vermont race this year.
Bradley: When we take a look at the lieutenant governor's race, and in Vermont the lieutenant governor is elected separately from the governor, the polls have been very steady in showing Molly Gray ahead of incumbent Republican John Rodgers. Why is she leading?
Bert Johnson: Well, she's been the lieutenant governor before so people know her and she's run statewide races before, so she had that advantage, and she has a broad network of supporters that she can tap into and she's fairly good at raising money. So a lot of that is playing in her favor.
And on the alternative side, John Rodgers doesn't seem to have been able to pick up on the enthusiasm that people have for Phil Scott, the Republican governor. So John Rodgers doesn't have the same level of popularity as the top of the ticket.
Bradley: The dynamic of the lieutenant governor's campaign seems a bit more abrasive than past campaigns. Are those criticisms and claims going back and forth between the candidates resonating with the voters?
Bert Johnson: Well, I think it does have the potential to turn voters off a little bit about that race. The attacks in that race have been somewhat more personal than the attacks in the governor's race. But I would say that that makes them more typical of races all around the country, that is, the lieutenant governor's race is more typical of races all around the country than the governor's race. In a lot of contexts, I'm sure in New York you've seen these campaigns, where there's just a lot of animosity out there between the candidates.
Bradley: Bert Johnson, there has been a lot of campaign spending and out-of-state money coming in for both the gubernatorial and the lieutenant governor's campaign. How unusual is this in Vermont?
Bert Johnson: Well, you usually have outside spending when outside spenders view the race as competitive. So the fact that the outside money has started to come in to the governor's race suggests that all of a sudden outside groups, and in this case I'm largely talking about the Republican Governors Association and their PAC, they've decided that this race is really worth spending money on, that Phil Scott may really be in trouble. So it's a signal of how outsiders who care a lot about politics are viewing this race.
Bradley: The entire legislature is up for election this year. What are your expectations as to how well the Democrats, the Progressives, and the Republicans will do?
Bert Johnson: Because this is a midterm election year in which the incumbent party nationally is Republican, we would expect the Democrats to have the most energy and that would carry down onto the local level.
And a reason that one would expect the Democrats to do pretty well in addition to that is that Republicans did well last time. Republicans picked up a fair number of seats and ended the Democratic Party supermajority in the House and Senate in Vermont. So, because Republicans did so well, there was a Republican tide in the last cycle, they might fall back a little bit in this cycle. So that's what I would expect.
What I'm watching for is whether Democrats will reattain that supermajority status in the House and Senate.
Bradley: If they do get that supermajority, or even if they just have control, and theoretically if Amanda Janoo, the Democrat, wins the governor's seat, what would that mean for Vermont?
Bert Johnson: Number one, it would be the first time in many, many decades that an incumbent governor will have been defeated by a challenger. That really doesn't happen in Vermont typically. So that in and of itself is kind of extraordinary.
If the governor is a Democrat then it matters a little bit less that the Democrats would have a supermajority. Either way, the Democrats would be able to pursue their policy platform and they do have a fairly clear agenda having to do with increasing taxes on wealthier Vermonters and also providing more benefits in terms of healthcare and housing.
Bradley: Bert Johnson, have you been following early voting and how that is going across the state?
Bert Johnson: Well, it seems to be going pretty smoothly. It's hard to tell based on the early vote sometimes what the end result is going to be because of course you don't know whether a representative sample of people is voting early or not. But it does seem to be going off without a hitch, as it typically does in Vermont.
Bradley: Bert, you mentioned earlier anti-Trump energy across the country and there's been a lot of talk about a potential blue wave or even a blue tsunami nationwide. How will that national rhetoric affect turnout and results in Vermont?
Bert Johnson: Well, I think there is a sense that Vermonters, like people everywhere, they want to be part of whatever national energy is out there. And so Vermont Democrats, I think, are excited to play some role in whatever happens nationally. And that's typical, like I said, of a midterm election.
I do think it will be interesting to see how the Democrats nationally position themselves vis-a-vis Trump and whether they come up with a really coherent party message to carry forward into 2028. And if they do that, then that message could resonate locally as well. So, if there's a national approach to housing, if there's a national approach to healthcare, those kinds of things could resonate downwards to the legislative level.
Host: Ballots were automatically mailed to all active registered voters.
If voting in person on Election Day, Vermonters must bring their mailed ballots to the polls.
