It’s mid-March. Which, by all accounts means two things. One, we all think it should be warmer than it is by now. And two, it is time to fill out your NCAA Tournament brackets. As a point of pride and likely the last time I can say this for the foreseeable future, I am the defending champion in my NCAA Men’s Tournament pool. So I bring all the false confidence one might expect from randomly picking games better than other folks. My odds of winning again are remarkably slim, but I will remind myself that every year is a disparate event.
In that spirit and because I am a demonstrated expert, I would like to offer some insight into the Tournament. I am going to assume that you watch essentially no college basketball during the year and would have a hard time identifying where most schools are located unless they have a state in the name of the university. These insights aren’t specific to actually players and matchups and such. If you want that, I’d recommend ESPN to help you make confident yet still incorrect picks. This is a bit more 10,000 feet, a view from which my bracket still looks perfect.
First, remember those days when the NCAA Tournament was all about Cinderellas, and small schools slaying the dragon to get one shining moment? Well, those days are largely over. Yes, you might get some upsets, maybe a high seed loses to some small regional campus. But by and large, the new order of college sports is the rich get better, and the poor stay the same. The era of the transfer portal and pay-to-play is fully amongst us, which means that you’ll be hard pressed for small schools to hold on to a star player who slipped through the recruiting cracks. These days, all talent filters upward. Which means if the pool’s for money, pick the one seeds.
Second, speaking of money, there’s a lot more on the line for some of these athletes than in past decades. Yes, star players of the past may have been immortalized in One Shining Moment, but today, they’re actually playing for real money. Even a player who will never see the inside of an NBA locker room can earn a pretty good future off image and likeness with a star performance on the biggest stage. And players already in the limelight, like let’s say Duke’s Cam Boozer, can earn millions in new endorsements, even before they hit the pros. So pick teams with stars.
Third, the shifting landscape of higher ed can be seen in the field of 68. For example, Queens University in Charlotte is playing in their first ever NCAA Tournament, having moved up from Division II in 2022. They’re a 15 seed playing heavy favorite Purdue. And it could also be their last time in the tourney, because Queens recently announced it will merge with larger in-state neighbor Elon, who also maintains a Division I sports program. There’s no announcement yet on what happens with sports, but at some point, it’s hard to imagine two teams in the same division from basically the same school. And as a reminder, Hartford made their first Division I tournament appearance in 2021 just months before their board of regents approved a plan to drop to Division III. Meaning, if you’ve always wanted to pick Queens to win a game, I’d say don’t wait.
I hope those tips give you everything you need to not finish last in your office pool this year. As for me, I’m picking Florida again, like I always do. I really hope they win so I can gloat at the workplace. And I also hope it finally gets warm.
Keith Strudler is the Dean of the College of Communication and Media at Montclair State University. You can follow him at @KeithStrudler.
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