http://stream.publicbroadcasting.net/production/mp3/wamc/local-wamc-996468.mp3
Albany, NY – In today's Academic Minute, Dr. Michael Schuckers of St. Lawrence University undertakes a statistical analysis of hockey's most exciting feature.
Michael Schuckers is an associate professor of statistics in the Department of Mathematics, Computer Science and Statistics at St. Lawrence University. In addition to using statistical analysis to assess player performance in sports, Schuckers also researches statistical methods for biometric devices such as fingerprints, iris scans, and facial recognition systems. He holds a Ph.D. from Iowa State University.
Dr. Michael Schuckers - Statistics and Hockey
Recently there has been a good deal of interest in statistical methods and sports with the primary focus being on baseball and "Moneyball". Hockey, unlike baseball, is a fluid game. It does not possess the static mano a mano that makes baseball so easily amenable to statistical analysis. However, there have been a growing number of people involved in applying sophisticated statistical methods to hockey. Using the limited data that is supplied by the NHL, there have been some surprising and useful results. Among these results is that deciding games via a shootout is effectively tossing coins to determine the winner.
Since the 2005-2006 season, NHL games that are tied after a five minute overtime go to a shootout. In the shootout, each team selects three players to take a penalty shot. The team whose players score the most is declared the winner. If both teams score an equal amount, each team gets an additional shot until one team has outscored the other.
After looking at 5711 shots during the first five years of the shootout, I found that there was not a significant difference between any of the goalies or between any of the shooters. Certainly some shooters were above the league average success rate of about 1 in 3 and, likewise, some goalies kept their opponents success rate below that figure. But just like tossing a fair coin 10 times over and over again will produce a regular pattern of 3 heads sometimes and 6 heads other times, the distribution of both shooters and goalies followed a regular pattern like tossing a coin.
So the next time that you're watching an NHL shootout, enjoy the intense drama and the spectacle but recognize that what you're seeing acts like a simple random process.