By Patrick Donges
http://stream.publicbroadcasting.net/production/mp3/wamc/local-wamc-985555.mp3
Great Barrington, MA – September 7, residents packed the aisles at Hevreh of Southern Berkshire for the Jewish Federation of the Berkshires' annual "Middle East Update," presented this year by Dr. Ralph Nurnberger, professor of international relations at Georgetown University and a principal lobbyist with Washington firm GrayLoeffler.
Nurnberger's presentation focused on what he said has been described as a, "diplomatic tsunami," about to hit once the United Nations convenes later this month dealing with a controversial vote being advocated for by the Palestinian National Authority.
"It is a vote that will work to the disadvantage, I believe, of the Palestinians, of the Israelis, of the U.N., and of the U.S."
That vote is actually two votes Nurnberger said could come before the U.N. sometime in the last two weeks of September that would have similar, but different outcomes.
Palestine is currently represented at the United Nations with, "observer status," meaning they can take part in some debates but do not have the right to vote. Palestinian officials are expected to appeal to the U.N. to change that status, here's Nurnberger.
"Either they will admit Palestine as a state to be admitted to the United Nations, (or) option number two is to upgrade the current status of the Palestinians to, 'non-member state.'"
According to Nurnberger, the passage of either of those provisions could spell trouble for residents of the region, as he explained.
"If the UN suddenly says, 'Yes, there is a state of Palestine and its borders are the following,' the problem is it won't change anything on the ground unless the Israelis agree to it."
"Let's say that these borders are determined by the U.N., that isn't going to get Israeli settlers to move; nothing will change in terms of the Israelis currently living there. It might leave to a recurrence of violence, a third intifada, when Palestinians on the ground realize that nothing changed in their lives."
Depending on how the U.N. classifies the vote, Palestinians would need either half or two-thirds of the U.N. General Assembly to approve a measure, which Nurnberger said was possible, with one caveat when it came to a proposal for full statehood.
"In order for Palestine or any other state to be admitted as a state, this must be approved by the Security Council and by the General Assembly. (On) the Security Council, the United States has already indicated the U.S. will veto this, and so therefore Palestine will not be admitted as a state."
As the U.N. session approaches, Nurnberger said U.S. officials met with Israeli and Palestinian officials this week to try and delay the vote and spur renewed peace talks.
After his presentation, Nurnberger answered several questions on topics ranging from the Israeli sea blockade of Gaza, the potential effects of the "Arab Spring" on regional relations, and internal Israeli politics, peppering his answers with asides and jokes, like this planned Freudian slip.
"Hezbollah, which is headed by one of the leading anti-Israelis in the world, a fella named Mel Gibson, um, I'm sorry I'm misreading my notes."
Michael Yuri, president of the Jewish Federation of the Berkshires, said that brand of dry humor is important to keep the public engaged and considering topics that are complex and potentially frightening for those with friends or family living in the Middle East.
"There aren't any immediate solutions. If you don't have a sense of humor you can tear your heart out over these issues, so at least coming in here and having a little laughter, it breaks up the seriousness."
Thursday afternoon the Washington Post's "World" blog reported that U.S. diplomatic measures to stop the Palestinian appeal for statehood were rejected by Palestinian leaders, setting the stage for the U.N. session scheduled later this month.