New York could lose up to 14% of its workforce as a result of the federal government’s mass deportation programs. That's according to a new report from the Institute on Immigrant Integration Research and Policy, at the Rockefeller Institute of Government, SUNY. WAMC's Maryam Ahmad spoke to report author and Senior Fellow at the Rockefeller Institute of Government Scott Fein about the wide-ranging impacts of mass deportation on the state's tax revenue, industries, and immigrant communities.
Maryam Ahmad: There is mention in this report about the overall impact on jobs and industry in the state. When we talk about New York State, what can you tell us about how New York benefits from or is impacted by immigrants who are coming here, whether documented or not?
Scott Fein: New York State has been a magnet for immigrants in some measure, as a result of Ellis Island, and as they would say, from chain migration. I think we number now among the fourth largest recipient of immigrants. You could ask almost any elected official, and they'd say that has resulted in our population increase. Our employment, our workforce in New York State, 20% of all construction workers are non-citizens and subject to deportation. In agriculture, it's more like 40-50%; transportation, 20%; manufacturing, 15%, and the number that would affect the most people is direct care services, services for the elderly, children and Human Services in hospitals and the like.
The consequence of the deportation of those people will do a variety of things. One, it will change, not the actual complexion, but the nature of our economy. It will increase on the average of family cost about $2,100, and it will increase inflation by about 3.1%, so a dramatic effect. The concern is that we have no way of backfilling. Immigration has been responsible for about 40% of our population growth in the United States, and a Gallup poll suggests that it may be as large as 80% in future years. So, we're not quite certain how, after a deportation, we will fill those positions.
When it comes to New York state, there are a number of resettlement programs that have boosted economies outside of just New York City, which is where most of New York State's immigrant population lives. What can you tell me about the impact that those resettlement programs have, and what the impact might be of these deportation campaigns as well?
Well, that is a very good question, and it's sort of a journey. The federal government decides where immigrants should settle, and New York State has received about 6 to 7% of the immigrant population over the past decade. But, of that number, 95% of the refugees were resettled in upstate New York. Now there's hardly a schism between upstate and downstate, but downstate is often thought of as more liberal, and upstate there are pockets of conservativism, and there was a concern: you are going to parachute in tens of thousands of refugees from, as it turns out, 28 different nations to a more conservative area. “What were you thinking?”
Well, obviously they were thinking quite well, because over the past 25 years, these communities have absorbed these immigrants, these refugees. If you ask the public officials and the business leaders in Buffalo and Syracuse and Binghamton and Albany, the urban areas and of course, Utica, which is the haven, they would say, “Send us more immigrants.” Buffalo had lost 50% of its population since the 1940s Rochester, similar, somewhat lesser number. Syracuse also a similar number, and they've repopulated as a result.
And it's not just adding people to live. It's safeguarding the schools because they need students. It's generating revenue. It's building small businesses and creating communities. Some of those most outspoken with respect to the presidential mass deportation program are the elected officials from those communities.
You spoke a bit about the resettlement programs here in Albany and in the Capital Region. In your research and the data you've compiled. How have you seen the potential impacts of mass deportations reflected by the numbers?
The Capital Region would probably fare better than many other regions. For example, once you get to the more agrarian portions of our state, they're not relying upon government employees, if you will, to generate local taxes. 60-70% of their revenue is associated with agriculture. They're not quite certain what they are going to do. And in New York [City], that's a similar issue. They don't have agriculture, but they rely upon their immigrant population to fill critical needs, and so far, the federal government has succeeded in deporting close to 2 million people nationwide.
As you mentioned, there is more than just an economic impact from these deportations. What are your concerns about how this is impacting beyond just the economic factors?
The fear in the immigrant community is because the issue is not only one of undocumented immigrants, but non-citizens. So for example, immigrants who have been here for 10 and 20 years, or who have children who are American citizens, the fear is that they will have to stay underground for some period of time. Now, on one hand, you'll say, “Well, so they can't go and shop.”
Well, that presents its own issues, but that also means that you don't go to the doctor's office where there may be federal agents, or the hospital where there are federal agents, and schools where these agents have stationed themselves and they perceive to be, and are told that that is their job to intercept their children. In effect, we have taken our social system and we have forced a substantial portion, 10% of our social system, to go underground. And I can't even imagine, from their perspective, those who are subject to that, how you confront it? Do you leave? Some have chosen to leave. They said, “We can't deal with this anymore. We can't safeguard our children.” And others, we simply don't know about.
