By Dave Lucas
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Albany, NY – Heading into the holiday shopping season, the outlook for jobs and the economy in the Capital Region is looking up - as we hear in this report from Capital District Bureau Chief Dave Lucas
It could be the signal that the end of the economic slump is near - Consumer Confidence Up across New York This Month as job postings in the Capital Region remain strong.
The latest poll by the Siena (College) Research Institute shows that New York State consumer confidence increased 3.1 points in October, while the nation's confidence decreased 5 tenths of a point. At 65.9, New York's overall consumer confidence is 1.8 points below the nation's* 67.7 confidence level.
"Overall consumer confidence had the largest single month increase we've seen in fifteen months and, with the exception of New York's lowest income households, was up for every demographic," according to Dr. Doug Lonnstrom, professor of statistics and finance at Siena College and SRI Founding Director. "More New Yorkers remain negative about today and pessimistic about the future than those that are satisfied and optimistic. While we lag behind the nation on current confidence, we are more hopeful about the future than the average American. Republicans had the biggest jump in confidence as they stepped back from September's economic cliff but New York's GOP members still trail far behind their Democratic neighbors in consumer confidence. Buying plans recovered from frighteningly low numbers the last two months and have returned to more typical albeit hardly robust rates."
With job postings remaining unchanged from last week, reporting to be just over 5800, Dan Moran, Founder & President of Next-Act of Colonie, has an equally optimistic take: " We seem to have fallen into a trend of consistency which is very good. Postings are hovering in the 5500 to 6000 range, off from the Spring but strong - so much stronger than last year when job postings were about one-half of this year's levels... consistent results over the past few weeks (are) much better than the decline that was reported in the September-October period, when postings were declining singling a decline in hiring activity. Other surveys of hiring in the region confirm this as well - we were in a jobs drought".
As we approach the holiday retail season, Siena's Doug Lonnstrom is keeping an eye on the price of gasoline, something that has a direct effect on consumer behavior: "It didn't take long for consumers to notice as prices at the pump started to rise. Concern over gasoline prices jumped eight percentage points across New York this month. Especially hard hit were Upstaters, up by fifteen percentage points, as now almost two-thirds dread the fill-up cost. Concern about food costs remained stable this month and continue to worry lower income New Yorkers, Upstaters and women more than anyone else," according to Dr. Lonnstrom.
Lonnstrom says although Forty-eight percent of all New Yorkers say that current gasoline prices are having a very serious or somewhat serious impact on their financial condition, Consumer Confidence remains high. If you're thinking of supplementing your income with a part-time job or you're seeking a better-paying job, Dan Moran says now is the time to look for work.
More good news: The U-S energy department expects the price of gasoline to hold steady around that $3.00 a gallon mark, at least for the rest of the year. The U.S. Energy Information Administration says that 67 percent of the cost of a gallon of gasoline is determined by the price of crude oil. So, the higher the price of crude, the higher the retail price of gasoline.
via Next-Act : Job postings in the Region are normally in the baseline of 4000 - 4900 on a weekly basis and 7-day rolling average, consistent for this area. Monitoring job postings is a leading indicator of hiring within the following 30-45 days. This methodology is utilized by reading research houses nationally and is employed in the Region by Moran's firm. For the purpose of reporting, the Region is defined as a 50 mile radius of Albany.
The SRI survey of Consumer Confidence was conducted in October 2010 by random telephone calls to 799 New York State residents over the age of 18. As consumer confidence is expressed as an index number developed after statistical calculations to a series of questions, "margin of error" does not apply.