JUANA SUMMERS, HOST:
Today President Trump issued a long-awaited endorsement in the Texas Republican primary runoff for the U.S. Senate. That election is May 26, but voters are already casting ballots. Trump endorsed Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton over incumbent Senator John Cornyn who's running for a fifth term. Houston Public Media's Andrew Schneider has been following the contest, and he's here now. Hi.
ANDREW SCHNEIDER, BYLINE: Hello.
SUMMERS: So, Andrew, tell us how the president explained this decision.
SCHNEIDER: Well, Trump said in a post on Truth Social, I know Ken well, have seen him tested at the highest and most difficult levels, and he is a winner. He pointed to Paxton's support for ending the filibuster and also passing the Save America Act. That's President Trump's bill aimed at making dramatic changes to the nation's voting systems, including requiring documentary proof of citizenship at the time of voter registration. He also said that while Cornyn is a good man and Trump has worked with him in the past, Cornyn hadn't supported Trump when times were tough. That likely refers to Cornyn's statements opposing Trump's candidacy during the 2016 and 2024 elections and Cornyn's Senate vote to ratify Joe Biden's victory in the 2020 election.
SUMMERS: What have you heard from the candidates so far? How are they reacting?
SCHNEIDER: Well, Paxton took to the stage at a Dallas suburb not long after the endorsement came down. He predicted it would help him win the GOP nomination next week.
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KEN PAXTON: I have so much respect for the president and so appreciate his endorsement, and I think it creates a slight bit of momentum, don't you?
SCHNEIDER: Trump had earlier indicated he wanted the person he did not endorse to pull out of the race, but Cornyn said in a post on X that he intended to fight it out. He said it was time for GOP voters to decide whether they wanted a strong candidate who could beat the Democratic nominee - that's state Representative James Talarico - or a weak one who would jeopardize everything Texans care about. Talarico himself posted that it didn't matter who won the Republican nomination, as both Paxton and Cornyn represented, quote, "billionaire megadonors and their corrupt political system."
SUMMERS: What is this likely to mean for the outcome of the Texas Republican primary runoff?
SCHNEIDER: I spoke with Austin-based political consultant Bill Miller. He's advised candidates of both major parties, and Miller said this is likely to give Paxton a significant edge.
BILL MILLER: It ends any question about who's going to win the Republican primary in Texas. The question, really, then, is, what does Cornyn do? Does he pull his ads down and accept defeat, or is he going to fight it? But the writing's on the wall. It's over, and that's that.
SCHNEIDER: There was some polling on this question a few weeks ago on behalf of Texas Public Opinion Research. It found that a Trump endorsement of Cornyn wouldn't have been enough to help the Senator close the gap with Paxton, but that a Trump endorsement of Paxton would give the attorney general a double-digit lead.
SUMMERS: Obviously, we don't know exactly what the state of Texas and its voters will do next week, but how could this endorsement change the race in the fall?
SCHNEIDER: That's a lot less clear. This has been a hard-fought primary with a lot of negative campaigning on both sides. There are a lot of Cornyn supporters, many of whom backed Cornyn through two rounds of the primary. They see Paxton as hopelessly tainted by corruption allegations. Those led to Paxton's impeachment by the Texas House in 2023, although he was acquitted by the Texas Senate. A lot of those voters will rally behind the party to defeat Talarico, but some may sit on their hands. And most polls suggest that if Paxton wins the Republican nomination, the general election will be much more competitive than if Cornyn manages to pull out a victory.
SUMMERS: Houston Public Media's Andrew Schneider, thanks so much.
SCHNEIDER: You're welcome. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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