The race for New York's 21st congressional district in the state's north country has tightened this cycle, threatening to flip the long Republican-held seat blue.
WAMC Southern Adirondack Bureau Chief Aaron Shellow-Lavine joined Ray Graf on Midday Magazine to break down the race so far.
INTERVIEW TRANSCRIPT:
Editor's note: this conversation has been lightly edited for clarity.
Graf: Polls are open through 9 p.m. today. We've already seen record early voter turnout in New York. How did the candidates in this race spend the last full day of campaigning?
Shellow-Lavine: Right. So Republican Anthony Constantino was joined in Rome yesterday — Rome, New York, that is — by Vice President J.D. Vance, Donald Trump's son, Donald Trump Jr., and the Energy Secretary Chris Wright. They were all there to really drive home the connection between Trump and Constantino as a candidate. Constantino has always, throughout this race, not just in the general but also in the primary, been President Trump's sort of handpicked candidate to represent the North Country.
While on the other hand, a lot of the people who were speaking in Rome yesterday were connecting the Democrat in this race, Blake Gendebien, to more prominent national Democrats like Nancy Pelosi, Hakeem Jeffries, Chuck Schumer, so on and so forth. Constantino also spent a bit of his final rally speech attacking the press who were present there.
Constantino: I don't believe fake news is accurate. It's actually evil news because these are people that are actively these are people that are actively working to hurt their own country, and they know it. That's evil. Now, if we could just delete them all, right? We get rid of the Times Union, the [Daily] Gazette.
Shellow-Lavine: So a lot of that animosity is seemingly coming just from the fact that a lot of reporting in the past weeks has centered on the fact that the race seems to be much tighter than many would have expected at the beginning of things here. Congresswoman Elise Stefanik won the seat in 2014 as a Republican by more than 20 points, rather, and every attempt at reelection she has won by double digits.
More recently, however, at least in this current race to fill the seat as Stefanik vacates it, the Cook Political Report adjusted their rating of the race in mid-October from "likely" to "lean" Republican, and a Siena Research Institute poll, which was done in collaboration with WAMC, actually saw Democrat Blake Gendebien up by four points. Though the margin of error in that was 4.6%. Gendebien, you know, on the other hand, for his last day on the campaign trail, he rallied with several hundred people in Saranac Lake Monday evening for, you know, a bit of a barn burner, "Get the vote out" rally as a final stop on his Harvest the Vote tour.
Graf: What kind of issues are at the top of voters' minds in the 21st district?
Shellow-Lavine: Affordability, as always, you know, as gas prices continue to go higher and higher, and you know, side note, as we approach snowmobiling season, that's only really going to hurt even more up here in the North Country. Immigration, of course, is one of those national issues that's also really on the top of mind of a lot of the North Country voters that I've been talking to. You know, large swaths of the district are on our northern border, so there's that sort of loose ephemeral concern floating around there. Gendebien actually spoke on the issue of, you know, what should be done, what reforms could be made on immigration with our very own North Country Bureau Chief Pat Bradley.
Gendebien: We've had opportunities to have common sense immigration reform, and we keep using it as a political football because there are too many legislators that are backed into their corners. I want to be a congressman for New York's 21st district that can have a conversation about common sense immigration reform to make sure that we secure the border. Yes, make sure that we deport violent criminals who are here legally with due process. Yes, but what we're forgetting about is streamlining the legal process.
Shellow-Lavine: Now you know I will note Constantino has received the endorsement of several law enforcement agencies as well as border patrol unions, so he's still again pitching himself as the candidate most likely to support them on that issue.
Graf: Why is this race so vital? We've seen national Republicans pull out all the stops to retain control of the seat. Why is that?
Shellow-Lavine: Again, I can't put too much of an emphasis on this. This district in the North Country here in New York, it is huge, and more importantly, it is extremely Republican. It has historically always been, or almost always been, held by Republicans, and, you know, what we've been watching across the country with Republican congressional candidates slipping in the polls over the past couple days. You know, some of them are distancing themselves from the president in the final days of their races, and some, like Anthony Constantino, are really leaning into the endorsement and connection to President Trump. He's a Trump loyalist, Constantino. If he loses in this already very Republican district, that could really, you know, speak to being a microcosm for the trends across the country as voters are growing more dissatisfied with the president.
Graf: And Aaron, where will you be tonight? And what are you expecting?
Shellow-Lavine: Well, I'm going to be at Anthony Constantino's watch party tonight. It'll be under the lights of his Amsterdam factory with the giant infamous vote for Trump sign. I will be there with many other journalists who will be keeping close track of things. It's going to be a close race. I cannot confidently say who I think will come out on top. I can confidently say that it will for sure be a very late night. But hey, it's one of those things that, as a newsroom, you look forward to for the entire year.
