Editor's note: Press play on the listen button above to hear WAMC Southern Adirondack Bureau Chief Aaron Shellow-Lavine discuss the poll further with Times Union Capitol Bureau reporter Alex MacDougall.
Since Republican Elise Stefanik first won New York’s 21st Congressional District seat in 2014, the region has been a GOP stronghold. Now, with Stefanik not seeking reelection, Republican candidate and Sticker Mule CEO Anthony Constantino is hoping to continue the trend.
However, a new poll by the Siena Research Institute — conducted in collaboration with WAMC, the Times Union and WPTZ — shows that while voters in the district still favor Republicans more broadly, that sentiment does not necessarily translate to support for Constantino.
The poll, which surveyed nearly 500 likely voters in the district between Sept. 30 and Oct. 6, found Blake Gendebien, the Democratic dairy farmer from Lisbon, has a 4-percentage-point lead over Constantino — 46% to 42%. While the poll found Constantino with 65% support among Republicans, 21% of GOP respondents told pollsters they would vote for Gendebien if the election were held now.
Meanwhile, the poll found stronger support for other Republicans. It showed Republican Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman with 55% support in his bid to unseat incumbent Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul, who has 40% support. The poll also found likely voters favored Republican control of Congress — 50% to 45%.
The poll's margin of error is 4.6%.
After its release, Constantino's campaign dismissed the poll.
"Despite relentless fraud on the part of the establishment and media, Anthony Constantino is winning NY-21," Alex DeGrasse, senior advisor to the Constantino campaign, said in a written statement. "Siena included a write-in, conservative candidate, but did not include a far-left write-in candidate, intentionally skewering results for on-ballot Democrats."
The Gendebien campaign embraced the results.
"While Constantino chases headlines, North Country residents across party lines are moving toward Blake: independents are breaking his way, a meaningful share of Republicans are crossing over, and voters trust him more to bring down costs, the issue weighing hardest on families here," the campaign wrote in a statement.
Generally speaking, likely voters surveyed in the Siena poll were pessimistic, with 57% of respondents saying the North Country was headed in the wrong direction.
A majority of respondents said Gendebien would be more effective at delivering for the district. Respondents said Gendebien would do a better job making prices more affordable, increasing access to quality healthcare, supporting farmers and small businesses, securing high-speed internet and cellphone service, ending outmigration, improving relations with Canada and regulating artificial intelligence.
Respondents said Constantino would be better at addressing undocumented immigrants living in New York.
More than 80% of Democratic respondents said Gendebien is in touch with average New Yorkers, while 63% of Republicans said the same of Constantino.
Constantino, who received President Trump’s endorsement prior to the June primary election, has remained steadfast in his support of the president. The poll found 54% of respondents prefer to support a candidate who will be a check on Trump’s agenda, and 55% said they disapprove of Trump's performance, compared to 45% who approve.
Upon winning a tense Republican primary against New York Assemblyman Robert Smullen, Constantino pledged to run a more policy-forward general election campaign. More than half of the respondents said Constantino is running more of a negative campaign focused on attacking Gendebien.
The results of the recent Siena poll come after Cook Political Report changed the rating of the New York 21st Congressional District from “solid Republican” to “likely Republican” for the first time since 2018.
That hasn’t swayed Constantino. In an interview with WAMC following the Cook Political Report's rating change, the Republican said, “They write these reports very quickly, and there's human error and everything, so I think that report's an error, and the betting market doesn't buy it at all because that report came out and the odds stayed the same," he said. "If that report meant something, the betting odds would have changed.”
