Forest researchers are anticipating a slow start to New England’s fall foliage season leading to extended and vibrant colors across the landscape.
Yankee Magazine has issued its prediction for the upcoming fall foliage season. Leaf peepers are expected to see tree canopies with bright colors. The magazine’s fall foliage forecaster Jim Salge explains how he calculates the season’s potential.
“There’s a number of things that go into it, but really in August we’re trying to assess how healthy the forest is at this point in the year. And this year we’ve come out of the drought really successfully in New England and we’ve had a lot less insect pressures and funguses. So we’re really optimistic about what this year may bring.”
Vermont Department of Forest Parks and Recreation Forest Health Program Manager Josh Halman expects a good foliage season in Vermont.
“For most of the growing season we had good rain and trees have been healthy. August has been a little drier so we’re starting to see some stressed trees showing a little bit of color already, but that’s typical, and again this year we’re seeing that in certain locations, not everywhere.”
A drought impacted areas of New England last year. Salge says while the multi-state region has mostly rebounded, there are still places that have significant groundwater deficits that may affect color.
“Eastern Massachusetts, the coast of Maine, they’re a little bit more dry than we’d like going into the season. But overall it’s really hard to have a bad foliage year in New England and I think even those areas are going to be beautiful. This year we have a bit of an El Nino pattern that should extend our season. So things progressing about on time in the northern areas and a bit late in the south, really extending a nice fall foliage season.”
While weather patterns throughout the year have been favorable for the emergence of color, Halman says it’s a bit early to determine which species will produce the brightest leaves and when that will happen.
“Red maple will start turning somewhat early if they’re in wetter areas or higher elevations or more northern latitudes. What we’ve seen from those few trees that have started changing color is that color looks great. Some sugar maples have been impacted by some fungal diseases. Some of the sugar maples that have these fungal issues going on might be a little more muted this year. But it’s not a widespread statewide issue that would be affecting all maples.”
This year, Vermont saw no outbreaks of insects or invasives that defoliate trees so most trees are expected to present brilliant colors. Salge is concerned about Beech Leaf Disease which is spreading across New England.
“It’s spread by the wind. It’s a microscopic nematode that seems to be cold tolerant in all but the coldest regions. And it’s just really wracked havoc region-wide.”
Salge says it has been one of the most rapid expansions of an invasive in New England’s forests.
“The beeches have a yellow-orange hue that really hangs on late in the year. So, people who are missing peak and coming late often see a lingering golden glow to the forests. And we’re really worried that that’s going to be a thing of the past with this new disease.”
Beech trees are a significant component of Vermont’s northern hardwood forest. Halman says the disease was first detected in southern counties of Vermont in 2023 and they have not yet seen a decline in beech tree health.
“So not really expecting to see much issue with fall color with beech trees in Vermont related to Beech Leaf Disease this year. As it progresses, we might start seeing more stress on those beech trees. And when beech trees get stressed, they really light up. It’s almost like a lemon-yellow color. Although not a really good thing for the trees whatsoever, it is a pretty striking color that you’ll see on the landscape.”
It’s typically mid- to- late September when widespread foliage colors emerge with peak color occurring in early October.
