Tuesday night, the NBA’s present and future were on display, one after another, giving the League’s range of fans something to cheer about. It started with the NBA Draft Lottery, which, if you’re unfamiliar, it’s the League’s version of Powerball, where probabilities and ping pong balls determine the order of the first 14 picks. There’s a lot of rationale behind the system, most notably that it supposedly keeps teams from intentionally trying to lose as many games as possible to have the worst overall record. I’d imagine Knicks fans doubt its efficacy, at least based on the team’s will to lose this year.
The big winner of last night’s future stakes was the New Orleans Pelicans, who ended up with the first pick in the upcoming draft despite only having a 6% chance. You can’t win if you don’t play. With the victory, the Pelicans now have the right to draft Duke mega-star Zion Williamson, who is regarded as one of the most dominant prospects in NBA history. Which, to be fair, is something we hear every few years or so. In this particular case, Zion quite often looked like a man amongst boys during his singular college basketball season. Which is why people see him like LeBron James and Michael Jordan and a few select others that can change the entire trajectory of a team. Which is why finishing first in the draft lottery instead of second, as Memphis did, was such a big deal. Of course, as reminder, Jordan was picked 3rd in his draft, not first.
It’s strange and perhaps fascinating that such an important part of professional sports would be done by a lottery – literally left to chance. At the very core, we like to believe that sports are meritocracy, where talent and hard work lead to success. Even acquiring free agents, where teams convince veteran players to join their roster, is the product of good salesmanship and smart accounting. But the draft, or at least the lottery, demands a good deal of luck.
Now, assuming the Pelicans do select Zion, perhaps the safest sports bet since the 1976 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, he will likely arrive just as New Orleans’ other mega star Anthony Davis, who was also a number one overall pick in 2012, leaves town, a product of Davis’ firm demand to be traded. So Zion Williamson enters as the bright apostle of the future just as the former bright apostle of the future hits the road. That, for better or worse, is the current state of the NBA, where the only constant is change.
Just after the lottery ended, the NBA shifted its focus from the future to the present, as Golden State pounded Portland in the first game of the Western Conference Finals. This was yet another step towards the Warriors third consecutive NBA Championship, potentially depending on the health of Kevin Durant. Golden State is the reigning NBA dynasty, at least so much that sports dynasties continue to exist. They are by far the deepest, most talented, and probably at this point, most disliked basketball team on the planet. They have more stars than Coachella and can win lots of games with all-stars on the bench. And that whole process, of Golden State going from cellar dweller to world beaters started, not coincidentally, with an NBA Draft. More specifically, with the 2009 Draft, when they picked Stephen Curry with the 7th overall pick. That began the team’s ascent that continued in dramatic fashion with the draft of Klay Thompson in 2011 and Draymond Green in 2012. And just like that, the NBA balance of power shifted from wherever LeBron James was to the Bay Area, something exacerbated when Kevin Durant decided to join the team.
So what’s the point? Well, you’ll hear a lot of different perspectives, or takes about last night’s NBA Draft and how it might impact the future. For example, one take is that Zion Williamson is a game changer, that in short time and with the right free agents, New Orleans will be a title contender. Another is that since the Knicks ended up third, they’re destined for continued mediocrity – although to be fair, I think Knicks fans would love some mediocrity right about now. Either, or both of these might be correct – or potentially wrong. But what’s not debatable is the impact of the draft, and the gamble that is the draft lottery, on the future of any NBA franchise. So as much as we’d like to imagine teams advance based on success, it’s just as reasonable to acknowledge they do so on a cocktail of past failure and good luck. That’s not exactly the aspirational ethos of sport. Instead of impossible is nothing, it’s more like a dollar and a dream.
For New Orleans fans, now’s the time to dream big. If Golden State’s present is any indicator, the future looks quite promising.
Keith Strudler is the director of the School of Communication and Media at Montclair State University. You can follow him on twitter at @KeithStrudler
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