Donald Trump, after what most commentators and observers concluded was an outrageous debate performance, has gyrated but clearly gained in the polls. The Republican establishment appears astonished, and the other candidates look lost.
A deeper look at Mr. Trump, however, reveals a much more complicated history than his bombastic pronouncements, particularly on immigration and women. Let’s look back a few years at his comments on a variety of issues.
His most recent trade proposal is for the implementation of tariffs against China, Mexico and Japan, and maybe others, while supporting free trade. That’s a puzzle. I guess in his mind, NAFTA is not an impediment to imposing tariffs against Mexico. But then again, according to Candidate Trump, the Constitution can selectively be the law of the land for people born in the US.
To pay off the national debt, in 1999 he proposed a one-time, 14.25 percent tax on the wealthy. Currently, he proposes reducing taxes, and in effect eliminating death taxes, corporate income taxes and capital gains taxes. I am not sure eliminating all those taxes makes much economic sense, since virtually all government revenue would come from individuals. But certainly an argument could be made for a contribution by the wealthy to reduce the debt, as long as government bonds were paid off as the debt was reduced and those dollars were used for investment in the private sector. That works for all—well, most—of us. It is also important to note that he has refused to sign the Grover Norquist anti-tax pledge—he’s smarter than we think. He supports maintaining but not increasing the minimum wage, and has even proposed separate minimum wage levels for teenagers and adults with families. That strikes me as pretty sensible.
He wants to repeal the Affordable Care Act, but doesn’t really offer any counterproposal. This is fairly typical Republican rhetoric, and for once puts him in the mainstream of Republican thought.
In 2011, he made a number of predictions about oil and food prices, most of which have not come to fruition. We did, however, see $3.50 for a gallon of gas, although even that prediction has evaporated.
He has said he never asked God for forgiveness. I’m surprised he recognizes a higher power. In 1990, he wanted to legalize all illegal drugs, calling enforcement efforts a joke. He may be onto something here. If he still agrees with himself, he should call for a cost benefit analysis. Regarding Second Amendment rights, in his book, “The America We Deserve,” he was in favor of an assault weapons ban. But at the NRA-ILA Leadership Forum, he said, “the “Second Amendment will be totally protected.” From whose perspective?
Is “the Donald” a moderate, or simply someone who speaks in a stream of consciousness? He has had his ups and downs in business with a couple of bankruptcies; however, he supports significant risk-taking, which is necessary for economic growth. But will it work as a foreign policy doctrine?
His comments regarding women are troubling, but then again, most of the Republican candidates seem to have some difficulty in that area. Mr. Bush’s comment that we don’t need to spend $500 million on women’s health care was an amazing gaff.
Is Mr. Trump’s goal the nomination, or simply more marketing? Maybe he is preparing for his dotage and will watch his own performances for entertainment. It will be interesting to see if “the Donald” can thread the needle, and with his more outrageous comments continuing to stimulate debate, earn himself victories in a number of early primaries. If he does, 2016 will be truly entertaining.
This article was published in The Hill on August 27, 2015.
Mr. Owens is a former member of Congress representing the New York 23rd, a strategic advisor at Dentons out of its Washington, DC, office, and a partner in the firm of Stafford, Owens, Piller, Murnane, Kelleher & Trombley, PLLC, in Plattsburgh, New York.
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