On the USMCA front, several prominent Senate Republicans have announced that they may delay the vote in the Senate on the USMCA after receiving it from the House which passed it this week. It appears that this change of heart from being gung-ho USMCA to – wait a minute USMCA, is based upon the fact that President Trump compromised with Democrats and these Republicans feel that the USMCA has become a Democratic trade bill and not a Republican one. The complaints were nonspecific, but appeared to focus on the enforcement provisions against Mexico which the Mexican Congress has already agreed to, and the shortening of protected status for certain drugs which apparently big Pharma opposes – no surprise there. It looks like the Republican Senators who are opposed favor big Pharma more than they do American workers. Don’t you think drug prices are high enough?
The overwhelming victory of Boris Johnson in Britain clearly paves the way for Brexit to move forward, with the terms as yet not clearly defined, although from past bills that Mr. Johnson has placed before the Parliament, it would appear that the only real wrinkle is what happens in Northern Ireland’s border with the Republic. The details of trade between Britain and the EU are somewhat less clear at this juncture, but will likely have a huge impact on the British economy in any event. If Mr. Johnson tanks the British economy, maybe we will get yet another election in Britain.
POTUS was impeached this week and now the Senate process becomes front and center. Much has been said about the activities of various Senators, and the idea that they are working with the administration. During the Clinton impeachment, the minority in the Senate worked with the White House so this is not a surprise. Fox News, in their most recent poll which POTUS trashed immediately, indicated that 50% support impeachment and removal and 45% are against. The Speaker is holding the Articles and not forwarding to the Senate. By the way, the Constitution is silent on this issue- I read that section again this week. Senator McConnell wants to play hard ball, well the Speaker can too. This could take some time to get done.
The New York Intelligencer in an article dated December 15th, by Heather Holburg has as its caption “Trump’s Tradewinds are a Triumph of the Trivial”. That tongue twister leads you to the conclusion that we haven’t seen much of substance out of the Trump trade wars. On the USMCA front, he had to make major concessions to the Democrats to get it through and even his own International Trade Commission sees about 1/3 of 1% growth in GDP as a result of this deal. In other words, not really worth it.
On the China trade front, the first phase deal does nothing in terms of major issues which he is attempting to negotiate with China, and results in a relatively small amount of increased purchasing by the Chinese of US farm products. Other trade deals simply languish. Not a great record for someone who claims trade wars are easy to win.
Bloomberg Reports that 31 counties created 1/3 of American GDP, which constitutes approximately 1% of all the counties in the United States. These counties created 32.3% of US GDP in 2018, while having 26.1% of employed Americans, and 2.9% of the American population. Talk about highly concentrated.
Chewing gum is really old. Scientists have apparently found the remains of a 5,700-year-old girl living in Denmark, who had blue eyes, dark skin and dark hair, and they found that her last meal included birch pitch which was an ancient form of chewing gum. Now every time I pull a stick out to chew, I wonder if my DNA reflects that young girl’s interest in gum.
Happy Holidays to all!
Bill Owens is a former member of Congress representing the New York 21st, a partner in Stafford Owens in Plattsburgh, NY and a Senior Advisor to Dentons to Washington, DC.
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