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Bill Owens: Confounding And Confusing Events 1/13/20

China in 2020. As we move into the new decade, the First Phase Deal, as it has been described, leaves on the table most of the important issues to American business and those are unresolved including the Chinese requirement to provide technology in order to do business in China, its currency manipulation practices, and a more subtle but less well known issue is of course its vast army of subsidies which it provides to its businesses. This tilts the table in a way which dramatically effects any number of industries, but its particularly problematic in the technology sector. We will have to watch very carefully what occurs, but it appears that the First Phase was merely an attempt by Mr. Trump to satisfy the AG Sector by purportedly increasing purchases which appear to be largely an illusion.

China is also embarking and likely to introduce its own form of cryptocurrency which will be supported by its Central Bank and to some degree regulated by that Bank. This could have dramatic impacts on International transactions and banking as we know it would become largely redundant in that sector. How the US and the rest of the world responds in terms of regulatory impact will also be of great interest, particularly in the light of the US Congress’s response to Facebook when it introduced cryptocurrency. In this case it is going to be very difficult to monitor and regulate the Chinese currency and it will be very tempting for American businesses to use it, particularly when doing business with Chinese vendors or customers. This one is really worth watching because it could have dramatic impacts on the world banking system.

On the scientific front, as we move into the New Year, a giant star has been dimming markedly over the past several weeks and scientists are speculating that it may be ready to explode and disappear. This star, Betelgeuse, is located in what we know as the Orion Hunter’s right shoulder. This is one of those scientific mysteries that creates tremendous interest for astronomers, and although it is not directly related to our everyday lives, it again points out our relative position in the universe. That’s not something that we should let pass by as we begin the new year and look at ourselves in perspective.

A conservation homerun has been hit on the West Coast in an area off California and Oregon which is the size of the state of Rhode Island. This area had been shut down to bottom fishing by trollers for a number of years and well ahead of schedule, the area has recovered sufficiently, that it has been reopened to fishing for rock fish, sole and Pacific Ocean perch along with other deep dwelling fish. This is again something which is very important and interesting to the conservation community, but to all of us as well. The ocean is a vast resource for feeding the ever-increasing populations of the world and the fact that we can see recovery taking place with proper management, means that going forward, we may be able to manage so as to be in a position where it is not necessary to shut down in order to preserve our food supply. Hopefully, everyone will recognize the need for this food supply and its maintenance and take the appropriate steps.

GOP strategist Rick Wilson published a list of Rules for Republicans looking to display loyalty to POTUS:

  1. Never be the first guy to stop clapping when Trump speaks
  2. It is always year zero; memory and consistency is the enemy of loyalty in the Trump world
  3. Your superlatives are insufficient. Praising Trump properly demands a new vocabulary of obsequiousness”

And it goes on. Demeaning but clearly accurate.
The assassination of General Soleimani is the first time since World War II that we assassinated a high-ranking officer of the opposition’s military when we shot down Marshall Admiral of the Imperial Japanese Navy, Yamamoto, in his aircraft off Papua New Guinea. Following the death of General Soleimani, the Iraqi Parliament voted to oust the US service members stationed in Iraq; President Trump threatening Bagdad with sanctions (I question whether or not there is legislation which would support such an action by Mr. Trump) as well as Iran imposed them on Friday; the US military announced it would halt its fight against Isis in Iraq; Iranian state television announced that they would not abide by the limits of 2015 nuclear deal; thousands, if not millions of mourners appeared in both Iraq and Iran for the funeral of General Soleimani; POTUS threatened destruction of culturally important sites which may well be a war crime (evidences the fact that he has not read the Geneva Convention) but his Secretary of Defense and State contradict him. Let us harken back to Senator McCain when he spoke out against waterboarding and other torture for a very simple and pragmatic reason, and that is, if we do it to them, they are likely to do it to us. Think about all of the religious and cultural sites within the crosshairs of the Iranian military, and you might give Mr. Trump’s proposal a significant second look.

The actions of the Iraqi’s to date and the President’s responses have been reassuring that cooler heads may prevail.

John Bolton announced he would testify at the Senate trial if subpoenaed. This adds an interesting dimension because I think its reasonable to assume if Republicans fail to call him, that he would be a potentially adverse witness, leading to the presumption that he has damaging testimony. If they do call him, then I think it is reasonable to assume he will provide testimony which that is likely to exonerate the President.

Bill Owens is a former member of Congress representing the New York 21st, a partner in Stafford Owens in Plattsburgh, NY and a Senior Advisor to Dentons to Washington, DC.

The views expressed by commentators are solely those of the authors. They do not necessarily reflect the views of this station or its management.

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