First off, it’s important to note that Hurricanes Idalia and Franklin, both currently hovering over the Atlantic, are not expected to have any major impact on the Northeast.
Brian Siemnecki is a meteorologist with the National Weather Service’s New York office, which monitors the lower Hudson Valley, New York metropolitan area, Long Island, and southern Connecticut.
"Thankfully for us in the Northeast, we are expecting high pressure to build in from the north, and that's going to steer both of these systems away from our area," says Siemnecki.
That said, hurricane season has historically brought its fair share of storms, strong winds, and flooding to the Northeast — and this year’s season may be tougher than usual, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The latest outlook from the NOAA saw forecasters increasing the odds of an “above normal” Atlantic hurricane season to 60 percent, with an estimated 14-21 named storms and 6-11 hurricanes, with up to five becoming major hurricanes.
Siemnecki says that could spell trouble for vulnerable areas. Many counties in the Hudson Valley are still picking up the pieces from July, when heavy rain washed out roads and devastated homes and businesses. Siemnecki says it’s hard to gauge the total rainfall across the region, as it was very uneven, but those who got hit, got hit hard.
"The ground can only hold so much water before it can't hold any more," he notes. "So if you get days and days of rain, eventually, when you get another bigger storm, it might lead to flooding."
Orange County was among those under a state of emergency. One person was swept away in Fort Montgomery, and the county as a whole saw roughly $75 million in damages to public property and infrastructure.
Deputy Commissioner of Emergency Services Alan Mack says the county has made some progress since then, particularly to roads and bridges, thanks to Federal Emergency Management Agency aid. But he says many residents are still waiting for individual assistance from FEMA. Mack says the county is meeting all of FEMA’s standards for the funding, but unfortunately, individual assistance can be rare.
"I know that our senators and congress people have reached out to FEMA to encourage them to sign it, and I do not know [why they haven't]. We talk with the state every day, they're our liaison to the federal government, and they just keep saying 'No answer yet, no answer yet,'" says Mack. "FEMA is now dealing with the rain in southern California and the fire in Maui, Hawaii."
And soon, perhaps, Florida, where Idalia is expected to make landfall.
Mack’s main job, he says, is to help residents prepare for the next storm — and each storm provides new lessons. Mack says a lot of the county’s hazard mitigation strategy is based on the impacts of Hurricane Irene and Superstorm Sandy in 2011 and 2012.
Back then, he says the county learned the importance of enlarging its drainage pipes, to prevent them from being clogged by debris that could, in turn, wash out roads. Mack says municipalities have a knack for spotting their most vulnerable infrastructure, and will often either build those roads up, or increase the drainage around them.
In July, though, Mack says he learned that even a well-planned ditch can’t always compete with Mother Nature. He says this summer's storms happened so quickly, they caught everyone off guard.
"The director of the National Weather Service called me the day after the storm and apologized for missing it," he adds. "And I said, 'What? You don't have to apologize to me. The model didn't show it, nothing showed it. It's a thousand-year storm."
So what can you do? Mack says have a go-kit ready now. Grab a gym bag, backpack, or small suitcase and pack it with some essential survival items: batteries, flashlights, a small candle, matches, a crank radio, and copies of your important documents (to speed up their recovery later). If you have pets, pack pet food and buy a cheap, foldable crate, as many shelters will not accept dogs or cats without a container to temporarily keep them in.
Also, Mack says just saving your information for a rainy day is worth it.
"It might be something as simple as writing down in a notebook your key phone numbers. We used to memorize them, we used to write them in an address book, [but] now you have it in your phone," he explains. "But if your power goes out for a long period of time, and you can't charge your phone — and then somebody else comes in with a phone you can use — it would be nice to have that written down somewhere."
Lastly, if you’re looking to fly this Labor Day weekend, you’re going to want to keep a close eye on your flights. As of Tuesday afternoon, none of the major airports in and around New York City had seen more than 15 cancellations over the last 24 hours, according to Flight Aware – but nearly all were departures to Tampa. The Port Authority generally warns that even far-away storms can have a cascading effect on air traffic across the country. For its part, the Port Authority says it installed more flood walls, elevated its electrical substations, and incorporated elevated structures into its new airport terminals after Sandy caused an estimated $2.5 billion in damage to its facilities in 2012.
You can learn more at the website for FEMA's "Ready" campaign here.
